11.26.07
Update subprime bankparade V.
This week several insurance companies joined Etrade and Countrywide. All these companies are moving close to the edge and all you have to do is make a calculated guess to what is going to happen next. Etrade and Countrywide have become take-over candidates. Good business, buying troubled but valuable companies. I think a traditional global bank could benefit tremendously from the modern global broker infrastructure that comes with Etrade.
This article reports about two French banks buying the (or better their) insurance company CIFG for just one reason, prevent a downgrade by Fitch. A downgraded rating of their insurance subsidiary could easily lead to a default situation, liquidity problems and termination of that company. This probably would backfire to the parent company. The initial impact does show up in reduced earnings of the parent company. But what to think about a scenario in which the subsidiary goes bankrupt. The parent company could face lawsuits. This bank is already troubled by owning downgraded CDO’s and now is also indirectly hit via potential insured bonds claims. It looks like that a downgrade could cost much more than just business, a downgrade could also threaten the continuity of the parent company. It makes me wonder what value this rating really represents and whether or not the $ 1.5 billion capital injection will prove to be a good investment.
|
Company |
News |
|
|
Nov26 |
GMAC |
$ 1.6 billion so far and more to come. |
|
Nov26 |
Citi |
45.000 jobs at risk in addition to previously announced 17.000 jobs. Almost 20% staff reduction this year. |
|
Nov26 |
JP Morgan |
100 jobs gone and CRO replaced |
|
Nov26 |
HSBC |
$ 35 billion injection to protect SIV’s. |
|
Nov23 |
News |
Delinquency rates rising for real estate and credit card |
|
Nov22 |
News |
FSA sees $11 billion exposure for Japanese banks |
|
Nov21 |
News |
Fitch downgrades $30 billion CDO’s. |
|
Nov21 |
MGIC |
SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million . $ 0.5 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results. |
|
Nov21 |
Radian |
SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million and selling service units to raise money. Almost $ 0.8 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results. |
|
Nov21 |
AIG |
Derivative lawsuit started, accusations of concealing information and personally selling shares. |
|
Nov21 |
Countrywide |
Denying bankruptcy threats. |
|
Nov20 |
News |
Insured CDO’s at risk due to possible downgrade of insurance companies resulting in inability to make termination payments and effectively wipe out these insurers and subsequently more write offs by banks. |
|
Nov20 |
Citi |
Predicted $15 billion write offs next 6 months, downgraded |
|
Nov20 |
Countrywide |
Liquidity concerns, signs of bankruptcy |
|
Nov20 |
Freddie Mac |
$ 2 billion write off, liquidity problems |
|
Nov20 |
Swiss re |
$ 1 billion write off |
|
Nov16 |
Citi |
$ 11 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
|
Nov16 |
News |
Banks reassuring investors, IMF and OECD issue warnings. |
|
Nov16 |
Novastar financial |
$ 0.4 billion write off, probably expelled from NYSE |
|
Nov16 |
UBS |
$ 7 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
|
Nov15 |
Barclays |
$ 2.7 billion write off. |
|
Nov14 |
Bear Stearns |
$ 1.2 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
BoA |
$ 3.3 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
HSBC |
$ 3.4 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
News |
$ 3 billion exposure for director-and-officer insurances, claims resulting from lawsuits. |
|
Nov13 |
RBC |
$ 0.4 billion write off. |
|
Nov12 |
Blackstone |
$ 0.8 billion write off |
|
Nov12 |
Citi |
$ 25 billion exposure resulting from liquidity puts, survival concerns. |
|
Nov12 |
Etrade |
$ 3 billion exposure and an analyst report resulted in a 60% price drop of shares and concerns about going bankrupt. |
|
Nov12 |
Metlife |
Insurance company with $ 91.3 billion mbs exposure |
|
Nov12 |
Principal Financial group |
Insurance company with $ 12.3 billion mbs exposure |
|
Nov 9 |
CIBC |
Canadians reporting $ 0.5 billion write offs, more Canadians to follow. |
|
Nov 9 |
Fanny Mae |
|
|
Nov 9 |
HSBC |
Antoher 120 jobs in addition to the 750 reported in August are lost |
|
Nov 9 |
JP Morgan |
4th quarter warnings, exposure $ 8 billion. |
|
Nov 9 |
Wachovia |
$ 1.6 billion subprime loss |
|
Nov 8 |
Merrill |
SEC starts investigation investments |
|
Nov 8 |
Morgan Stanley |
$ 3.7 billion subprime write off |
|
Nov 8 |
News |
RBS expects another $250 to $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs |
|
Nov7 |
Bear Stearns |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
BofA |
Expected write offs another $3 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
|
Nov7 |
Citi |
Shareholders lawsuits |
|
Nov7 |
Commerzbank |
$337 million write off |
|
Nov7 |
Goldman |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $5 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Lehman |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Merrill |
Expected write offs 4th quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Morgan Stanley |
Expected write offs another $4 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
|
Nov7 |
News |
Level 3 assets concerns, $400 billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings. |
|
Nov5 |
Market news |
Asian markets drop sharply (5%) |
|
Nov 3 |
Bear Stearns |
CEO accused of inappropriate conduct |
|
Nov 3 |
Citigroup |
Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago. |
|
Nov 3 |
Merrill |
Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it. |
|
Nov 2 |
Barclays Morgan Stanley |
Market and analysts expect losses |
|
Nov 2 |
Credit Suisse |
2.2 billion Swiss francs write down |
|
Nov 2 |
First American Washington Mutual |
Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals |
|
Nov 2 |
UBS |
Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion |
|
Nov 1 |
Citi |
Downgrade $30 billion expected loss |
|
Nov 1 |
Deutsche bank |
3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised |
|
Nov 1 |
Federal reserve |
41 billion injection |
|
Nov 1 |
State Street |
$2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice |
|
Oct 31 |
General Electric |
1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts |
|
Oct 31 |
Merrill |
Lawsuits by shareholders |
|
Oct 31 |
UBS |
3,68 billion loss in francs |
|
Oct 30 |
Countrywide |
Offering cds at highest rates |
|
Oct 29 |
Bank of China |
$7,9 billion mortgage write off |
|
Oct 29 |
HSBC |
Sells mortgage unit, $795 million |
|
Oct 29 |
Market news |
Double digit price drop California housing |
|
Oct 29 |
Market news |
80% price drop mortgage backed securities |
|
Oct 29 |
Perpetual |
Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors |
|
Oct 28 |
Countrywide |
Analysts stating CEO is telling lies |
|
Oct 28 |
Fremont Inv & Loan |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 28 |
Market news |
Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months |
|
Oct 28 |
New Century Fin Corp |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 28 |
WMC Mortgage |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 27 |
Countrywide |
CEO accused for dumping stocks |
|
Oct 26 |
Countrywide |
Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss |
|
Oct 26 |
Moody’s |
Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities |
|
Oct 26 |
S&P |
Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees |
|
Oct 25 |
AIG |
Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss |
|
Oct 24 |
News |
$400 billion write off prognoses |
|
Oct 22 |
Bank of America |
$750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. |
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11.22.07
Update subprime bankparade IV
Insurance companies are, as expected, showing up in subprime related news. Write offs, SEC inquiries, restructuring, sharp profit drops, lawsuits and serious liquidity concerns are reported. That it will backfire to banks with “insured” derivatives is clear but not very transparent. Delinquencies are rising, not only for real estate but also for credit cards. The trend is down at stock markets, dollar is down, oil prices rising and trust will stay away as long as negative news keeps emerging. What to do to bring this to a halt? For the short term there is little individual companies can do, but the US government could. Decisive action helping real estate owners could turn things around and bringing trust back to the consumers and the market. Such action is not a typical US like approach. This crisis also finally triggers discussions about what is responsible lending and will impact US consumers in the long run. Is there a positive side to tell? Well, there always is. It definitely will change risk management approaches and drive improvement of scenario analysis, transparency of risk transfer and accelerate implementation of enterprise risk. And in the end it could turn out to be an unintended contribution to all the efforts to create a sustainable world.
|
Company |
News |
|
|
Nov23 |
News |
Delinquency rates rising for real estate and credit card |
|
Nov22 |
News |
FSA sees $11 billion exposure for Japanese banks |
|
Nov21 |
News |
Fitch downgrades $30 billion CDO’s. |
|
Nov21 |
MGIC |
SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million . $ 0.5 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results. |
|
Nov21 |
Radian |
SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million and selling service units to raise money. Almost $ 0.8 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results. |
|
Nov21 |
AIG |
Derivative lawsuit started, accusations of concealing information and personally selling shares. |
|
Nov21 |
Countrywide |
Denying bankruptcy threats. |
|
Nov20 |
News |
Insured CDO’s at risk due to possible downgrade of insurance companies resulting in inability to make termination payments and effectively wipe out these insurers and subsequently more write offs by banks. |
|
Nov20 |
Citi |
Predicted $15 billion write offs next 6 months, downgraded |
|
Nov20 |
Countrywide |
Liquidity concerns, signs of bankruptcy |
|
Nov20 |
Freddie Mac |
$ 2 billion write off, liquidity problems |
|
Nov20 |
Swiss re |
$ 1 billion write off |
|
Nov16 |
Citi |
$ 11 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
|
Nov16 |
News |
Banks reassuring investors, IMF and OECD issue warnings. |
|
Nov16 |
Novastar financial |
$ 0.4 billion write off, probably expelled from NYSE |
|
Nov16 |
UBS |
$ 7 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
|
Nov15 |
Barclays |
$ 2.7 billion write off. |
|
Nov14 |
Bear Stearns |
$ 1.2 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
BoA |
$ 3.3 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
HSBC |
$ 3.4 billion write off. |
|
Nov13 |
News |
$ 3 billion exposure for director-and-officer insurances, claims resulting from lawsuits. |
|
Nov13 |
RBC |
$ 0.4 billion write off. |
|
Nov12 |
Blackstone |
$ 0.8 billion write off |
|
Nov12 |
Citi |
$ 25 billion exposure resulting from liquidity puts, survival concerns. |
|
Nov12 |
Etrade |
$ 3 billion exposure and an analyst report resulted in a 60% price drop of shares and concerns about going bankrupt. |
|
Nov12 |
Metlife |
Insurance company with $ 91.3 billion mbs exposure |
|
Nov12 |
Principal Financial group |
Insurance company with $ 12.3 billion mbs exposure |
|
Nov 9 |
CIBC |
Canadians reporting $ 0.5 billion write offs, more Canadians to follow. |
|
Nov 9 |
Fanny Mae |
|
|
Nov 9 |
HSBC |
Antoher 120 jobs in addition to the 750 reported in August are lost |
|
Nov 9 |
JP Morgan |
4th quarter warnings, exposure $ 8 billion. |
|
Nov 9 |
Wachovia |
$ 1.6 billion subprime loss |
|
Nov 8 |
Merrill |
SEC starts investigation investments |
|
Nov 8 |
Morgan Stanley |
$ 3.7 billion subprime write off |
|
Nov 8 |
News |
RBS expects another $250 to $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs |
|
Nov7 |
Bear Stearns |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
BofA |
Expected write offs another $3 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
|
Nov7 |
Citi |
Shareholders lawsuits |
|
Nov7 |
Commerzbank |
$337 million write off |
|
Nov7 |
Goldman |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $5 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Lehman |
Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Merrill |
Expected write offs 4th quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights |
|
Nov7 |
Morgan Stanley |
Expected write offs another $4 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
|
Nov7 |
News |
Level 3 assets concerns, $400 billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings. |
|
Nov5 |
Market news |
Asian markets drop sharply (5%) |
|
Nov 3 |
Bear Stearns |
CEO accused of inappropriate conduct |
|
Nov 3 |
Citigroup |
Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago. |
|
Nov 3 |
Merrill |
Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it. |
|
Nov 2 |
Barclays Morgan Stanley |
Market and analysts expect losses |
|
Nov 2 |
Credit Suisse |
2.2 billion Swiss francs write down |
|
Nov 2 |
First American Washington Mutual |
Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals |
|
Nov 2 |
UBS |
Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion |
|
Nov 1 |
Citi |
Downgrade $30 billion expected loss |
|
Nov 1 |
Deutsche bank |
3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised |
|
Nov 1 |
Federal reserve |
41 billion injection |
|
Nov 1 |
State Street |
$2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice |
|
Oct 31 |
General Electric |
1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts |
|
Oct 31 |
Merrill |
Lawsuits by shareholders |
|
Oct 31 |
UBS |
3,68 billion loss in francs |
|
Oct 30 |
Countrywide |
Offering cds at highest rates |
|
Oct 29 |
Bank of China |
$7,9 billion mortgage write off |
|
Oct 29 |
HSBC |
Sells mortgage unit, $795 million |
|
Oct 29 |
Market news |
Double digit price drop California housing |
|
Oct 29 |
Market news |
80% price drop mortgage backed securities |
|
Oct 29 |
Perpetual |
Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors |
|
Oct 28 |
Countrywide |
Analysts stating CEO is telling lies |
|
Oct 28 |
Fremont Inv & Loan |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 28 |
Market news |
Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months |
|
Oct 28 |
New Century Fin Corp |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 28 |
WMC Mortgage |
Approved fast foreclosures |
|
Oct 27 |
Countrywide |
CEO accused for dumping stocks |
|
Oct 26 |
Countrywide |
Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss |
|
Oct 26 |
Moody’s |
Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities |
|
Oct 26 |
S&P |
Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees |
|
Oct 25 |
AIG |
Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss |
|
Oct 24 |
News |
$400 billion write off prognoses |
|
Oct 22 |
Bank of America |
$750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. |
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11.16.07
Update subprime bankparade III
Concerns keep on growing and the subprime impact is spreading to other types of securities. Citi seems to be stuck with another $ 25 billion of potential write offs. Will Citi be able to handle this? It makes me wonder why this scenario wasn’t foreseen. Analysts are warning for a run-the-bank situation for Etrade. I feel lucky. I’ve opened an account a few months ago, but found the access to my account to cumbersome to take the risk. I decided not to deposit any cash simply because it didn’t seem easy to withdraw my money quickly. So brokers are also at risk. Impact is also anticipated for insurance companies. There are also bank-insurance combinations and I’m really curious how they transferred risk. An article was published by the BBC showing the situation in Cleveland. On one hand it is incredible to see to what extend subprime lending did expand. Complete neighborhoods were lending above what should be considered as responsible. It is easy to blame the banks, but what about the responsibility of the individual. The graphics tell their own story. Deutsche bank owning a piece of America, many more foreclosures to come. It puts things in perspective. While there are large banks in trouble and shareholders losing money it is another reality when families are robbed from a roof above their heads. Is this the American way? Deutsche bank needs to operate carefully. Putting families on the street and making billion dollars profit as well could easily backfire and turn into public outrage.These few weeks of consistently tracking companies that have been impacted by subprime related risks show also a repeating pattern. It begins with a relatively small loss. The next reported loss is much bigger, factor 4 to 6 times bigger than the initially reported loss. CEO’s need to leave or their conduct is questioned. Shareholder lawsuits are started and when the mess is really big the SEC or other regulators want to know more. Warnings are issued for the next quarter. With a delay impact of the crisis is starting to show in other credit risk transferring products and non-bank companies. Analysts and investors are losing trust. Why aren’t these companies able to bring all the bad news at once, to what extend are they in or out of control? I expect we will know much more by the end of next week.
| Company | News | |
| Nov16 | Novastar financial | $ 0.4 billion write off, probably expelled from NYSE |
| Nov16 | News | Banks reassuring investors, IMF and OECD issue warnings. |
| Nov16 | Citi | $ 11 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
| Nov16 | UBS | $ 7 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter |
| Nov15 | Barclays | $ 2.7 billion write off. |
| Nov14 | Bear Stearns | $ 1.2 billion write off. |
| Nov13 | BoA | $ 3.3 billion write off. |
| Nov13 | RBC | $ 0.4 billion write off. |
| Nov13 | News | $ 3 billion exposure for director-and-officer insurances, claims resulting from lawsuits. |
| Nov13 | HSBC | $ 3.4 billion write off. |
| Nov12 | Etrade | $ 3 billion exposure and an analyst report resulted in a 60% price drop of shares and concerns about going bankrupt. |
| Nov12 | Citi | $ 25 billion exposure resulting from liquidity puts, survival concerns. |
| Nov12 | Blackstone | $ 0.8 billion write off |
| Nov12 | Metlife | Insurance company with $ 91.3 billion mbs exposure |
| Nov12 | Principal Financial group | Insurance company with $ 12.3 billion mbs exposure |
| Nov 9 | CIBC | Canadians reporting $ 0.5 billion write offs, more Canadians to follow. |
| Nov 9 | JP Morgan | 4th quarter warnings, exposure $ 8 billion. |
| Nov 9 | HSBC | Antoher 120 jobs in addition to the 750 reported in August are lost |
| Nov 9 | Fanny Mae | |
| Nov 9 | Wachovia | $ 1.6 billion subprime loss |
| Nov 8 | Merrill | SEC starts investigation investments |
| Nov 8 | Morgan Stanley | $ 3.7 billion subprime write off |
| Nov 8 | News | RBS expects another $250 to $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs |
| Nov7 | Commerzbank | $337 million write off |
| Nov7 | News | Level 3 assets concerns, $400 billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings. |
| Nov7 | Bear Stearns | Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
| Nov7 | Lehman | Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights |
| Nov7 | Goldman | Expected write offs 4th quarter $5 according to CreditSights |
| Nov7 | Merrill | Expected write offs 4th quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights |
| Nov7 | Morgan Stanley | Expected write offs another $4 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
| Nov7 | BofA | Expected write offs another $3 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank |
| Nov7 | Citi | Shareholders lawsuits |
| Nov5 | Market news | Asian markets drop sharply (5%) |
| Nov 3 | Citigroup | Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago. |
| Nov 3 | Merrill | Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it. |
| Nov 3 | Bear Stearns | CEO accused of inappropriate conduct |
| Nov 2 | BarclaysMorgan Stanley | Market and analysts expect losses |
| Nov 2 | UBS | Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion |
| Nov 2 | First AmericanWashington Mutual | Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals |
| Nov 2 | Credit Suisse | 2.2 billion Swiss francs write down |
| Nov 1 | Federal reserve | 41 billion injection |
| Nov 1 | Citi | Downgrade $30 billion expected loss |
| Nov 1 | State Street | $2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice |
| Nov 1 | Deutsche bank | 3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised |
| Oct 31 | UBS | 3,68 billion loss in francs |
| Oct 31 | Merrill | Lawsuits by shareholders |
| Oct 31 | General Electric | 1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts |
| Oct 30 | Countrywide | Offering cds at highest rates |
| Oct 29 | HSBC | Sells mortgage unit, $795 million |
| Oct 29 | Bank of China | $7,9 billion mortgage write off |
| Oct 29 | Perpetual | Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors |
| Oct 29 | Market news | Double digit price drop California housing |
| Oct 29 | Market news | 80% price drop mortgage backed securities |
| Oct 28 | Market news | Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months |
| Oct 28 | Countrywide | Analysts stating CEO is telling lies |
| Oct 28 | Fremont Inv & Loan | Approved fast foreclosures |
| Oct 28 | WMC Mortgage | Approved fast foreclosures |
| Oct 28 | New Century Fin Corp | Approved fast foreclosures |
| Oct 27 | Countrywide | CEO accused for dumping stocks |
| Oct 26 | Moody’s | Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities |
| Oct 26 | Countrywide | Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss |
| Oct 26 | S&P | Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees |
| Oct 25 | AIG | Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss |
| Oct 24 | News | $400 billion write off prognoses |
| Oct 22 | Bank of America | $750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. |
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11.08.07
Update subprime bankparade II
Today I attended a presentation held by two CRO’s from Dutch companies; Aegon and ING. The PRMIA organized this. I really liked the ING presentation. Mr. Timmermans showed that high quality near realtime risk information, extensive scenario testing, internal rating and using different types of impact calculation do help the business to make better decisions. Probing analysts force companies to organize information from different perspectives and this information must be readily available to prevent undesired speculation. An enjoyable evening that inspired me to update the subprime bankparade.
| Nov 8 | Merrill | SEC starts investigation investments | Operational |
| Nov 8 | Morgan Stanley | $ 3.7 billion subprime write off | Credit |
| Nov 8 | News | RBS expects another $250 to $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs | Credit |
| Nov7 | Commerzbank | $337 million write off | Credit |
| Nov7 | News | Level 3 assets concerns, $400 billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings. | Credit |
| Nov7 | Bear Stearns | Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights | Credit |
| Nov7 | Lehman | Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights | Credit |
| Nov7 | Goldman | Expected write offs 4th quarter $5 according to CreditSights | Credit |
| Nov7 | Merrill | Expected write offs 4th quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights | Credit |
| Nov7 | Morgan Stanley | Expected write offs another $4 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank | Credit |
| Nov7 | BofA | Expected write offs another $3 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank | Credit |
| Nov7 | Citi | Shareholders lawsuits | Operational |
| Nov5 | Market news | Asian markets drop sharply (5%) | Market, liquidity |
| Nov 3 | Citigroup | Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago. | Credit,liquidity,operational |
| Nov 3 | Merrill | Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it. | Operational,reputation |
| Nov 3 | Bear Stearns | CEO accused of inappropriate conduct | Reputation |
| Nov 2 | BarclaysMorgan Stanley | Market and analysts expect losses | Credit |
| Nov 2 | UBS | Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion | Credit,liquidity |
| Nov 2 | First AmericanWashington Mutual | Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals | Credit |
| Nov 2 | Credit Suisse | 2.2 billion Swiss francs write down | Credit |
| Nov 1 | Federal reserve | 41 billion injection | Liquidity |
| Nov 1 | Citi | Downgrade $30 billion expected loss | Liquidity,credit,reputation |
| Nov 1 | State Street | $2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice | Operational,credit |
| Nov 1 | Deutsche bank | 3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised | Credit |
| Oct 31 | UBS | 3,68 billion loss in francs | Credit,reputation |
| Oct 31 | Merrill | Lawsuits by shareholders | Operational,Legal |
| Oct 31 | General Electric | 1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts | Credit |
| Oct 30 | Countrywide | Offering cds at highest rates | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | HSBC | Sells mortgage unit, $795 million | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | Bank of China | $7,9 billion mortgage write off | Credit |
| Oct 29 | Perpetual | Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors | Market |
| Oct 29 | Market news | Double digit price drop California housing | Market, credit |
| Oct 29 | Market news | 80% price drop mortgage backed securities | Credit, market |
| Oct 28 | Market news | Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months | Operational,credit |
| Oct 28 | Countrywide | Analysts stating CEO is telling lies | Operational |
| Oct 28 | Fremont Inv & Loan | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | WMC Mortgage | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | New Century Fin Corp | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 27 | Countrywide | CEO accused for dumping stocks | Operational |
| Oct 26 | Moody’s | Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities | Credit, market |
| Oct 26 | Countrywide | Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 26 | S&P | Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees | Operational |
| Oct 25 | AIG | Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 24 | $400 billion write off prognoses | Credit | |
| Oct 22 | Bank of America | $750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. | Credit, reputation |
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11.05.07
Update subprime bankparade
I’ve updated last weeks list of impacted banks. The stories are repeating themselves. Who will be the next CEO without a job. Just looking at the news tells you different stories. In several occasions banks had to report more damage than initially reported. Companies are accused of conspiring to fool buyers and investors. Hmmm, sounds familiar. Amongst these companies are rating agencies.. what to believe? It also seems strange that Merrill is able to predict subprime impact for other companies, why didn’t they do that job internally? For the next few weeks I will keep updating this list, I expect there will be a lot to learn.
| Date | Company | News | Risk |
| Nov5 | Market news | Asian markets drop sharply (5%) | Market, liquidity |
| Nov 3 | Citigroup | Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago. | Credit,liquidity,operational |
| Nov 3 | Merrill | Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it. | Operational,reputation |
| Nov 3 | Bear Stearns | CEO accused of inappropriate conduct | Reputation |
| Nov 2 | BarclaysMorgan Stanley | Market and analysts expect losses | Credit |
| Nov 2 | UBS | Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion | Credit,liquidity |
| Nov 2 | First AmericanWashington Mutual | Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals | Credit |
| Nov 2 | Credit Suisse | 2.2 billion Swiss francs write down | Credit |
| Nov 1 | Federal reserve | 41 billion injection | Liquidity |
| Nov 1 | Citi | Downgrade $30 billion expected loss | Liquidity,credit,reputation |
| Nov 1 | State Street | $2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice | Operational,credit |
| Nov 1 | Deutsche bank | 3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised | Credit |
| Oct 31 | UBS | 3,68 billion loss in francs | Credit,reputation |
| Oct 31 | Merrill | Lawsuits by shareholders | Operational,Legal |
| Oct 31 | General Electric | 1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts | Credit |
| Oct 30 | Countrywide | Offering cds at highest rates | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | HSBC | Sells mortgage unit, $795 million | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | Bank of China | $7,9 billion mortgage write off | Credit |
| Oct 29 | Perpetual | Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors | Market |
| Oct 29 | Market news | Double digit price drop California housing | Market, credit |
| Oct 29 | Market news | 80% price drop mortgage backed securities | Credit, market |
| Oct 28 | Market news | Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months | Operational,credit |
| Oct 28 | Countrywide | Analysts stating CEO is telling lies | Operational |
| Oct 28 | Fremont Inv & Loan | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | WMC Mortgage | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | New Century Fin Corp | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 27 | Countrywide | CEO accused for dumping stocks | Operational |
| Oct 26 | Moody’s | Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities | Credit, market |
| Oct 26 | Countrywide | Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 26 | S&P | Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees | Operational |
| Oct 25 | AIG | Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 24 | $400 billion write off prognoses | Credit | |
| Oct 22 | Bank of America | $750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. | Credit, reputation |
:: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: :: ::
11.01.07
Subprime, lies, damn lies and 2 weeks of figures!
I’ve put the subprime figures of the last two weeks together. They tell a shocking story, see for yourself. Is this the case for enterprise risk and will it initiate more regulation?
| Date | Company | News | Risk |
| Nov 1 | Federal reserve | 41 billion injection | Liquidity |
| Nov 1 | Citi | Downgrade $30 billion expected loss | Liquidity,credit,reputation |
| Nov 1 | State Street | $2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice | Operational,credit |
| Nov 1 | Deutsche bank | 3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised | Credit |
| Oct 31 | UBS | 3,68 billion loss in francs | Credit,reputation |
| Oct 31 | Merrill | Lawsuits by shareholders | Operational,Legal |
| Oct 31 | General Electric | 1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts | Credit |
| Oct 30 | Countrywide | Offering cds at highest rates | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | HSBC | Sells mortgage unit, $795 million | Credit,liquidity |
| Oct 29 | Bank of China | $7,9 billion mortgage write off | Credit |
| Oct 29 | Perpetual | Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors | Market |
| Oct 29 | Market news | Ddouble digit price drop California housing | Market, credit |
|
Oct 29 |
Market news |
80% price drop mortgage backed securities |
Credit, market |
| Oct 28 | Market news | Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months | Operational,credit |
| Oct 28 | Countrywide | Analysts stating CEO is telling lies | Operational |
| Oct 28 | Fremont Inv & Loan | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | WMC Mortgage | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 28 | New Century Fin Corp | Approved fast foreclosures | Operational, credit |
| Oct 27 | Countrywide | CEO accused for dumping stocks | Operational |
| Oct 26 | Moody’s | Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities | Credit, market |
| Oct 26 | Countrywide | Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 26 | S&P | Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees | Operational |
| Oct 25 | AIG | Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss | Credit |
| Oct 24 | $400 billion write off prognoses | Credit | |
| Oct 22 | Bank of America | $750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt. | Credit, reputation |
