02.19.09

Supervision insights?

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , , at 9:45 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

1909 painting The Worship of Mammon by Evelyn ...
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A few days ago I criticized the effectiveness of the bank managers integrity watch as implemented by the De Nederlandsche Bank and worded by Mr. Nout Wellink.  Yesterday I stumbled upon the latest speech from Mr. Wellink and this time I’m much more positive.  In his speech Mr. Wellink more or less acknowledges the total failure of supervision and how this contributed to the current crisis.

I’m tracking the crisis since the beginning and one of the things I found unbelievable was the fact that supervision was in the US on a voluntary basis, at least for the big investment banks. It is clear that supervision was considered unnecessary by politicians who believe in the self cleansing capabilities of the free market and forgot that greed is also an important risk factor.   The recent billion dollar fraud scandals (Kerviel, Madoff, Stanford)  showed that the supervision can be fooled easily and questions the expertise of the people working for the governmental institutions. The risk manager of HBOS demonstrated another flaw in the governance of control functions within and around financial institutions. Supervisors simply cannot rely on the independence of internal control functions like Audit and Compliance although sound practice policies prescribe independence.  Independence requires much more and being on the payroll of a company certainly doesn’t make it easy to overrule a CEO. A similar statement can be made about the independence of rating agencies and their risk assessments of companies and products.

So, what is there to bring me in a positive mood? Well, it is simply the fact that supervision practices are under review as well. I partly agree with the analysis of Mr. Wellink. At the same time I think there is too little focus on how to ensure independent and knowledgeable supervision. Supervision which has the power and the professional background to be able to challenge a board of directors and their experts.

There are more fundamental questions to be answered like are the risk management systems up to par with the trading systems? Most trading platforms are build upon state of the art real time technology which present trading opportunities in a rich graphical variety. Now compare that to most manual and excel based risk ‘platforms’. In many cases risk management is trailing trade weeks or months and why are supervisors accepting this?

Even more fundamental is why supervisors until now have ignored Basel II Pillar III,  which is about transparency.  Although some companies are trying to become risk transparent the reality is different.  The way risk is measured and expressed is often way too complex and difficult to comprehend for investors and consumers. How to value off balance sheet S.I.V.’s in relation to a companies value and risk exposure? The assumption, also in theory, is that markets are efficient meaning that the pricing reflects expectations including risk adequately. Given the lack of transparency I doubt if this is true. Looking at how banks are priced should be enough to substantiate this point of view. Another good example is the American auto industry. How well was the risk of rising energy costs (a reasonably easy to predict event even before the crisis)  incorporated in the stock price of these companies?

Mitigation of systemic risks is the core responsibility of supervisors. Questions like how large the exposure of  a single company may grow, also in the context of the global financial system, need to be answered. Banks are used to managing concentration risk. On a world scale AIG and Lehman (but also Citigroup, ING etc.) can initiate a collapse of the financial system. Perhaps supervisors should manage systemic risks like credit risk managers are used to manage concentration risk in their portfolios.

Probably the most difficult challenge is to overcome the lack of cross-boundary supervisory alignment, policies, methodologies and tooling. Financial and technological innovation are developing at a speed that require innovation at supervisory level as well. It is likely that the first reaction will be to slow down financial innovation via regulation.  This approach will definitely fail simply because nobody ever succeeded in halting human creativity. Even when the approach to slow down financial innovation works for a while, it certainly will not halt technological innovation.  Financial, economical, political and environmental news travel with the speed of Internet around the world. How to create intelligent buffers to protect the financial systems against the impact of panic waves?

Hmm, what is there that makes me more positive? Well it is the acknowledgement that supervision failed and that there is need for improvement in a globalised environment.  It is a starting point for progress and therefore Mr. Wellink’s speech deserves some credit.

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01.13.09

News from GTNEWS

Posted in bank, risk tagged , , , at 9:40 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

Today I’ve added the RSS feed from gtnews to my collection of high quality risk related feeds. Although not all articles are risk related, the depth and the quality of their articles deserve the opportunity to show up in the daily news stream. Njoy!

09.15.08

Lehman and Merrill update.

Posted in bank, credit risk, liquidity risk, risk tagged , , , , , , , , at 8:43 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

Today I quickly added the last important credit crisis events to the guided analysis. Merrill was never a surprise for me and I hope for the people of the Bank of America the board really reviewed this “merger” in detail. It will be difficult to understand the deal until we are at least 6 months later, but given the history of questionable business ethics at Merrill’s there are plenty of unknown risks.

I suggest to just take a look, using the guided analysis., at the series of events that emerged before banks were taken over or went bankrupt. I find the events remarkably resembling.

09.08.08

Dutch insurance sharks II.

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , at 7:40 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

Although there is plenty of water surrounding the Netherlands you will not find any sharks there. The sharks surfaced several years ago in the Dutch insurance world. These insurance sharks sold over thousand different investment products promising high returns. Pension, mortgages, life insurances, saving accounts combined with investment constructions etc. After a while some investors got disappointed with the performance of their investments and started an investigation. This showed that the main reason for the bad performances were hidden costs the sharks charged the unknowing investors.

It also found more sharks floating in the Dutch investment and savings sea eating themselves fat with easy prey. Over 6.500.000 products were sold. Almost every household in the Netherlands is involved in this issue. In some cases over 40 percent of the deposited money was never invested and booked under costs.

In 2006 two foundations, backed by home owner and investor organizations, started to organize support for a class act like approach. The “Stichting Verliespolis” and “Claim Woekerpolis” by now have over 100.000 members. Most of the Dutch financial institutions are on the target list of these two foundations. The Dutch minister of Finance is involved and has been asked to put some pressure on the financial institutions. There is a risk that the foundations cannot bring the cases to court in time.

September 8th the foundations reported a  breakthrough in one of the negotiations with an insurance company named Delta Lloyd. The insurer will pay back an amount of 300 million euro. Extrapolating this amount to the other institutions results in compensations totaling 6 billion euro.
At this stage the possible settlement is already criticized because major components are excluded (life insurance premium) and the insurer is not forced to adjust its cost structure. This means that in the end the customers pay there own compensation. November the 21st a second company called Nationale Nederlanden, a subsidiary of ING,  settled with the foundations and agreed to pay back 365 million euro.

The Dutch financial institutions have lost one major source of income. Consumers have lost trust and effectively stopped buying their investment products. It also makes me wonder whether this business practice is typical Dutch or common in other countries too.

Sources: Stichting Verliespolis”, nu.nl

07.27.08

Oops, somebody just lost $ 6 billion dollars!

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , , , , , , , , , at 9:34 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

No, this is not an item on Societe General, although there are definitely similarities. Can you make a guess which company caught my attention? When you think of Kervel do you automatically make the association with Wurz?

This week started with hope for the financials beating expectations of analysts. But then Wachovia surprised everybody! A loss of $ 8.9 billion was reported. Well this in itself is hardly any news nowadays. The more disturbing in this article from Yahoo is not the loss itself. It is a short reference to a previous outlook from Wachovia itself. I had to look twice, but it really happened. Only three weeks ago the company expected a loss ranging from $ 2.2 to $ 2.8 billion. This outlook from Wachovia now signals severe problems for this bank.

I will explain why, but you can draw your own conclusions with the guided analysis from riskfriends. Just select Wachovia and look at the events as they unfold. Only three weeks ago, according to Yahoo, the expectation was a loss of $ 2.8 billion. Just before this announcement the CEO had to leave. Within a week, after surprising investors and analysts with really disappointing figures, the CFO stepped down. Can you guess why?

Who believes that Wachovia’s portfolio deteriorated within 3 weeks another $ 6 billion? The market is worsening and the number of loans that are noncollectable increase, but not at this speed.

One explanation could be that the CEO and CFO decided to represent the quality of the Wachovia portfolio as optimistic as possible, hoping that the market would quickly turn around. This would be a matter of changing variables in the models used to calculate the numbers of expected defaults. Another possible reason for this difference could be an inadequate information infrastructure that is unable to calculate the impact of market movements and internal operational data on a daily interval. This can happen when essential data is simply missing or the process of validating the credit risk models against the operational performance runs on a very low frequency. Or to put it different, the operational feedback in the risk models is not functioning. Perhaps Wachovia is experiencing difficulties with the integration of Golden West Financial. There are more scenario’s possible. The mistaken outlook makes Wachovia’s position in lawsuits extremely vulnerable.

I started with a reference to Wurtz and Kervel. Kervel did not profit from his actions that were targeted at repairing his mistakes unnoticed. I think it is very likely that a similar motive drove the Wachovia management. It is the kind of behavior you often see with investors. Trying to repair losses unnoticed hoping that a swift market change will cover up what went wrong. There are more ways to hide problems from the public and an independent investigation like the one performed at SocGen should give insight in what actually happened.
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07.18.08

Credit crisis, regulators total failure?

Posted in business risk, enterprise risk, operational risk, risk tagged , , , , , , , , , , at 9:24 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

When you track the credit crisis it is impossible to ignore the total failure of the supervising authorities. These regulators are there to ensure financial institutions remain within the boundaries of law and balance earning money with servicing investors and customers. The credit crisis uncovers the modi operandi within the American financial sector and I wonder what the supervisors have been doing besides burning tax payers money. It is not even the more complex tasks like understanding and validating risk modeling practices of complex products as used by rating agencies and bond and insurance mortgage companies. No, it is the simple task of gaining insight in day-to-day operational activities within financial institutions and enforcement of minimal business ethics. During the last months many incidents were reported that show a total disrespect from these companies for their customers, their investors and the law. Let me give some examples:

  • Countrywide accused in a lawsuit of forging documents
  • Countrywide fined after destroying customer checks resulting in increased rates and additional charges for legal costs
  • Insurance companies finding evidence of forged collateral’s
  • Rating agencies not managing conflicts of interests
  • Banks falsely presenting auction rate products as save and easy to cash
  • Mortgage selling practices that have little to do with serving customers
  • Hedge funds advising customers while acting themselves contradictorily

These are just a few examples to illustrate how easy it should be identify improper business practices. All you have to do is track lawsuits, actively invite customers and investors to file complaints or check product information. Who will investigate the regulators and evaluate their contribution to the current crisis. What steps will be taken to improve their performance?

07.12.08

Implementing enterprise risk management – part 1.

Posted in Uncategorized tagged , , , , , , , at 9:09 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

Implementing Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) is becoming one of the activities that gets more and more priority in the financial world. I will share my own experience with the implementation of ERM. The first part is about added value of ERM so you have some input if you think of trying to initiate a similar initiative in your own company.

ERM is primarily targeted at improving strategic and tactical decision making at senior management level. Your ambition should be obtaining support from your CEO and CRO, because that is the level that you need to service. Now is improving decision making not a very convenient argument to get warm support from senior management. So here are some other valid reasons:

  1. It will enable senior management to respond much quicker and with higher confidence to changing circumstances. Referring to the credit crisis can help here.
  2. It enables a company to present analists with reliable information regarding impact of changing (market) circumstances.
  3. It saves the CEO a lot of meetings with different risk specialists and thus time.
  4. It will enable a company to better profit from the opportunities that identified risks can bring.
  5. It strengthens the position of the CRO.
  6. It is likely to become a requirement to qualify for capital reduction from regulators anyway.
  7. Rating agencies are likely to include the maturity of ERM as one of the variables in their models.
  8. Within 2 years it will reduce risk management and control costs.
  9. It forces risk disciplines to work together and improve the quality and completeness of risk information. This results in less incident management, more often informed risk-reward decisions.
  10. It is more fun!

Now I do not advice you to use them all, just pick the ones that are the most compelling to your management and to the ERM champion.

What do you need to ask from your business sponsor? This depends on your ambition, but there are actually only three key success factors.

1. Immediate adoptation and support from senior management for the ERM initiative.

When you start, make sure that senior managements commits to putting the ERM monthly report on the agenda of their monthly meetings. Even when you feel that the initial product is not ready for publication. You need to do this to ensure that all departments will feel the pressure to deliver. I will come back to this in one of the following parts.

2. Assign the responsibility to deliver the ERM report to one department.

There should be no confusion who has the lead in the ERM initiative. Expect resistance from various departments. Ensure you have the backing of the sr. management team by means of a formal assignment. I think that ORM is preferable, because that is a risk discipline used to work with a broad variety of risks and therefore has the best mindset to facilitate this process.

3. Request the funds and resources to build the ERM information infrastructure.

An professional ERM environment cannot do without a solid information infrastructure. This is not an easy task, because it will take time, effort and perseverance to build this. Whatever you do, do not make the availability of the infrastructure a prerequisite for the ERM report.

    To be continued …

    07.07.08

    Big rewards at no risk!

    Posted in analytics, bank, business intelligence, business risk tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 8:11 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

    Analyzing the credit crisis, you can do that interactively yourself here, shows that the most troubled companies all have been in the news with integrity issues.

    Some financial institutions did fire risk managers or at least blamed their risk management department for the unforeseen impact of the crisis. Any risk manager should have had a strategy in place that manages situations in which market mechanisms stop functioning. Risk managers know that VaR calculations do not cover extreme events. In the past the LTCM case, an analysis can be found here, already showed that markets can stop functioning. The best risk management department off course predicts when such events are likely to happen and enable a company to profit from such events. It looks like only Goldman Sachs managed to do this.

    But what to do when the CEO starts making decisions that are conflicting with business ethics and that increase legal risk? The credit crisis interactive analysis shows that integrity issues are the most threatening and most damaging problems for a company. Just take a look at the events at Bear Stearns and Countrywide or remember what happened at Enron. These type of problems are difficult to manage by a company’s internal function, whether it is risk, compliance, audit or the board of directors. The internal functions simply do not have the power nor the authority to withstand a CEO. The board of directors are often at too much distance to remain in touch with the operational reality and at the same time they are often to close at the personal level to remain independent. UBS recognized this, be it a little late.

    The credit crisis will probably result in more legislation or more focus at Basel II pillar three. Shareholders and employees became victims from inadequate management. Senior management however often walked away with millions of dollars. Big reward at no risk!

    Some examples:

    • O’neal from Merrill Lynch rewarded with $160 million leaving his bank in real trouble.
    • Groenink from ABNAMRO rewarded with $ 40 million leaving his bank to be split into 3 pieces.
    • Charles Prince from Citi rewarded with almost $ 100 million
    • Sullivan from AIG rewarded with $ 47 million severance package
    • Angelo Mozilla to profit from sale to BofA.. estimations vary but are in the range of several tens of millions.

    Today Yahoo! reports that Countrywide employees fear for their severance pay.When will the first employee out of a job due to failing management start a lawsuit demanding equal severance pays?
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    12.14.07

    Update subprime bankparade VII

    Posted in bank, business risk, credit risk, enterprise risk, liquidity risk tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 7:16 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

    Will 2008 become a happy new year for the financial world? Forecasts are negative for some banks and home owners in the US and in Europe. It is not very clear yet who is loosing from the SIV downgrade. To my surprise hardly any insurance company reported problems (yet). Goldman Sachs, Lehman, JP Morgan are presented as companies in control. Looking at the mitigation of risks you see different approaches for common problems.

    Some banks decide to put SIV’s on their balance sheet. This solves liquidity issues, but impacts ratios. The idea behind this is that in the end the market value will return. Closing SIV’s is another option, but it is not good for a banks relation with its investors. Other banks are thinking of initiating a new SIV. The Dutch RABO bank declared the SIV model dead, but at the same time guaranteed Tango Finance. Just to keep track of developments I will add SIV to the HOT tab of riskfriends.

    Banks are reacting in a very predictable way. I observed the following, not very creative, actions.

    • initially underestimating the impact and unable to provide reliable forecasts
    • cutting jobs and closing business units, some do attempt to sell
    • firing CEO’s and CRO’s
    • closing SIV’s
    • attracting capital
    • putting SIV’s on the balance sheet, impacting ratio’s
    • some improve their communication, others remain silent
    • some efforts to work together to share the burden
    • starting to reconsider their risk management strategy

    Inveztors react by

    • selling their shares
    • starting lawsuits
    • withdrawing cash and investments
    • demanding more transparancy
    • looking for opportunities

    Government waits and waits and then reacts with

    • pumping billions of dollars in the market
    • starting investigations a little too late
    • attempts to reassure the market with ineffective regulations
    • predicting negative impact and higher interest rates for the next year

    Today I worked with a group of risk professionals and we did an exercise on how to manage this scenario. It was fun to do and resulted in some interesting insights. I will share this with you in the coming weeks. And as always.. an update of the subprime bankparade.

    Date

    Company

    News

    Dec 12

    Citi

    $15 billion downgrade SIV

    Dec 12

    Lehman

    12%profit drop, no write offs,
    no closure of SIV’s

    Dec 10

    Fannie Mae

    Expects $5.5 billion loss next
    few years.

    Dec 10

    Freddie Mac

    Expects $7.5 billion loss next
    few years.

    Dec 10

    BoA

    Closes investment fund, value
    of assets dropped from $40 billion to $12 billion in a few months.

    Dec 10

    Washington Mutual

    Closing 60% of home loan
    centres, 3000 jobs lost, closure of subprime and investment broker unit, sale
    of $3.7 billion preferred stock and 73% cut of dividend.

    Dec 10

    Citi

    Take over speculations are starting
    up.

    Dec 10

    UBS

    $10 billion write off
    announced. Capital ratio’s managed via $ 12 billion capital attractions from Singapore and the middle east.

    Dec 6

    Rabo

    Adds $7.6 billion to its
    balance sheet after selling half of the assets from Tango Finance.

    Dec 6

    Citi

    Moody’s downgrades 52 tranches
    or groups of bonds issued by the mortgage unit

    Dec 6

    RBS

    $2.6 billion and $ 0.6
    ABNAMRO write off beating market expectations.

    Dec 6

    Local government

    Various states and cities
    report impact from degraded SIV’s. Panic resulting in withdrawal of
    investments resulting in liquidity problems. Reported were Florida, Connecticut, Montana and some cities in Scandinavia.

    Dec 5

    Standared chartered

    Adding $ 1.7 billion of
    whistlejacket SIV to its balance

    Dec 3

    WestLB

    German bank guarantees $36
    billion invested in SIV’s

    Dec 3

    H&R Block

    $ 0.4 billion write off, closing
    Option One, 600 jobs lost. Effort to sell unit failed.

    Dec 3

    RBS

    $ 4 billion expected.

    Dec 1

    Morgan Stanley

    CEO Cruz leaves

    Nov29

    Terra securities

    Norwegian brokerage bankrupt,
    Citi connection.

    Nov29

    BoA

    $ 1 billion write off
    Countrywide investment

    Nov29

    Florida

    $ 8 billion run on the
    investment fund

    Nov29

    IKB

    $ 9 billion rescue costs
    provided by German banks.

    Nov28

    Bear Stearns

    1500 jobs in total lost, about
    10% of work force.

    Nov28

    Freddie Mac

    $ 6 billion sale of preferred
    stocks, dividend reduction of 50 percent

    Nov27

    Citi

    $ 7.5 billion sale .

    Nov26

    GMAC

    $ 1.6 billion so far and more
    to come.

    Nov26

    Citi

    45.000 jobs at risk in
    addition to previously announced 17.000 jobs. Almost 20% staff reduction this
    year.

    Nov26

    JP Morgan

    100 jobs gone and CRO replaced

    Nov26

    HSBC

    $ 35 billion injection to protect
    SIV’s.

    Nov23

    News

    Delinquency rates rising for
    real estate and credit card

    Nov22

    News

    FSA sees $11 billion exposure
    for Japanese banks

    Nov21

    News

    Fitch downgrades $30 billion
    CDO’s.

    Nov21

    MGIC

    SEC inquiries, restructuring
    via C-BASS $467 million . $ 0.5 billion difference with last years 3rd
    quarter results.

    Nov21

    Radian

    SEC inquiries, restructuring
    via C-BASS $467 million and selling service units to raise money. Almost $
    0.8 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results.

    Nov21

    AIG

    Derivative lawsuit started,
    accusations of concealing information and personally selling shares.

    Nov21

    Countrywide

    Denying bankruptcy threats.

    Nov20

    News

    Insured CDO’s at risk due to
    possible downgrade of insurance companies resulting in inability to make termination
    payments and effectively wipe out these insurers and subsequently more write
    offs by banks.

    Nov20

    Citi

    Predicted $15 billion write
    offs next 6 months, downgraded

    Nov20

    Countrywide

    Liquidity concerns, signs of
    bankruptcy

    Nov20

    Freddie Mac

    $ 2 billion write off, liquidity
    problems

    Nov20

    Swiss re

    $ 1 billion write off

    Nov16

    Citi

    $ 11 billion write off.
    expected in 4th quarter

    Nov16

    News

    Banks reassuring investors,
    IMF and OECD issue warnings.

    Nov16

    Novastar financial

    $ 0.4 billion write off,
    probably expelled from NYSE

    Nov16

    UBS

    $ 7 billion write off.
    expected in 4th quarter

    Nov15

    Barclays

    $ 2.7 billion write off.

    Nov14

    Bear Stearns

    $ 1.2 billion write off.

    Nov13

    BoA

    $ 3.3 billion write off.

    Nov13

    HSBC

    $ 3.4 billion write off.

    Nov13

    News

    $ 3 billion exposure for
    director-and-officer insurances, claims resulting from lawsuits.

    Nov13

    RBC

    $ 0.4 billion write off.

    Nov12

    Blackstone

    $ 0.8 billion write off

    Nov12

    Citi

    $ 25 billion exposure
    resulting from liquidity puts, survival concerns.

    Nov12

    Etrade

    $ 3 billion exposure and an
    analyst report resulted in a 60% price drop of shares and concerns about
    going bankrupt.

    Nov12

    Metlife

    Insurance company with $ 91.3
    billion mbs exposure

    Nov12

    Principal Financial group

    Insurance company with $ 12.3
    billion mbs exposure

    Nov 9

    CIBC

    Canadians reporting $ 0.5
    billion write offs, more Canadians to follow.

    Nov 9

    Fanny Mae

     

    Nov 9

    HSBC

    Antoher 120 jobs in addition
    to the 750 reported in August are lost

    Nov 9

    JP Morgan

    4th quarter warnings, exposure
    $ 8 billion.

    Nov 9

    Wachovia

    $ 1.6 billion subprime loss

    Nov 8

    Merrill

    SEC starts investigation
    investments

    Nov 8

    Morgan Stanley

    $ 3.7 billion subprime write
    off

    Nov 8

    News

    RBS expects another $250 to
    $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs

    Nov7

    Bear Stearns

    Expected write offs 4th
    quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    BofA

    Expected write offs another $3
    to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank

    Nov7

    Citi

    Shareholders lawsuits

    Nov7

    Commerzbank

    $337 million write off

    Nov7

    Goldman

    Expected write offs 4th
    quarter $5 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Lehman

    Expected write offs 4th
    quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Merrill

    Expected write offs 4th
    quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Morgan Stanley

    Expected write offs another $4
    to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank

    Nov7

    News

    Level 3 assets concerns, $400
    billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings.

    Nov5

    Market news

    Asian markets drop sharply
    (5%)

    Nov 3

    Bear Stearns

    CEO accused of inappropriate
    conduct

    Nov 3

    Citigroup

    Write off $ 11 billion in
    addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago.

    Nov 3

    Merrill

    Merril not aware of
    inappropriate transactions, not denying it.

    Nov 2

    Barclays

    Morgan Stanley

    Market and analysts expect
    losses

    Nov 2

    Credit Suisse

    2.2 billion Swiss francs write
    down

    Nov 2

    First American

    Washington Mutual

    Accused for inflating mortgage
    appraisals

    Nov 2

    UBS

    Another $ 8 billion expected
    in addition to the $3.8 billion

    Nov 1

    Citi

    Downgrade $30 billion expected
    loss

    Nov 1

    Deutsche bank

    3,2 billion loss, but in
    control, appraised

    Nov 1

    Federal reserve

    41 billion injection

    Nov 1

    State Street

    $2,6 billion loss, law suits
    wrong investment advice

    Oct 31

    General Electric

    1 billion at stake, mortgage
    staff cuts

    Oct 31

    Merrill

    Lawsuits by shareholders

    Oct 31

    UBS

    3,68 billion loss in francs

    Oct 30

    Countrywide

    Offering cds at highest rates

    Oct 29

    Bank of China

    $7,9 billion mortgage write
    off

    Oct 29

    HSBC

    Sells mortgage unit, $795
    million

    Oct 29

    Market news

    Double digit price drop California housing

    Oct 29

    Market news

    80% price drop mortgage backed
    securities

    Oct 29

    Perpetual

    Cut first-half profit forecast
    by 5%, spooked investors

    Oct 28

    Countrywide

    Analysts stating CEO is
    telling lies

    Oct 28

    Fremont Inv & Loan

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 28

    Market news

    Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months

    Oct 28

    New Century Fin Corp

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 28

    WMC Mortgage

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 27

    Countrywide

    CEO accused for dumping stocks

    Oct 26

    Countrywide

    Largest home lender, $1.2
    billion loss

    Oct 26

    Moody’s

    Cut the ratings of
    collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage
    securities

    Oct 26

    S&P

    Lawsuits, wrong rating
    mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees

    Oct 25

    AIG

    Analysts predicts $9,8 billion
    loss

    Oct 24

    News

    $400 billion write off
    prognoses

    Oct 22

    Bank of America

    $750 million loss, provisions
    up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt.

     

    11.26.07

    Update subprime bankparade V.

    Posted in credit risk, enterprise risk, liquidity risk, operational risk, risk tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , at 10:07 pm by peter@riskfriends.net

    This week several insurance companies joined Etrade and Countrywide. All these companies are moving close to the edge and all you have to do is make a calculated guess to what is going to happen next. Etrade and Countrywide have become take-over candidates. Good business, buying troubled but valuable companies. I think a traditional global bank could benefit tremendously from the modern global broker infrastructure that comes with Etrade.

    This article reports about two French banks buying the (or better their) insurance company CIFG for just one reason, prevent a downgrade by Fitch. A downgraded rating of their insurance subsidiary could easily lead to a default situation, liquidity problems and termination of that company. This probably would backfire to the parent company. The initial impact does show up in reduced earnings of the parent company. But what to think about a scenario in which the subsidiary goes bankrupt. The parent company could face lawsuits. This bank is already troubled by owning downgraded CDO’s and now is also indirectly hit via potential insured bonds claims. It looks like that a downgrade could cost much more than just business, a downgrade could also threaten the continuity of the parent company. It makes me wonder what value this rating really represents and whether or not the $ 1.5 billion capital injection will prove to be a good investment.

    Date

    Company

    News

    Nov26

    GMAC

    $ 1.6 billion so far and more to come.

    Nov26

    Citi

    45.000 jobs at risk in addition to previously announced 17.000 jobs. Almost 20% staff reduction this year.

    Nov26

    JP Morgan

    100 jobs gone and CRO replaced

    Nov26

    HSBC

    $ 35 billion injection to protect SIV’s.

    Nov23

    News

    Delinquency rates rising for real estate and credit card

    Nov22

    News

    FSA sees $11 billion exposure for Japanese banks

    Nov21

    News

    Fitch downgrades $30 billion CDO’s.

    Nov21

    MGIC

    SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million . $ 0.5 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results.

    Nov21

    Radian

    SEC inquiries, restructuring via C-BASS $467 million and selling service units to raise money. Almost $ 0.8 billion difference with last years 3rd quarter results.

    Nov21

    AIG

    Derivative lawsuit started, accusations of concealing information and personally selling shares.

    Nov21

    Countrywide

    Denying bankruptcy threats.

    Nov20

    News

    Insured CDO’s at risk due to possible downgrade of insurance companies resulting in inability to make termination payments and effectively wipe out these insurers and subsequently more write offs by banks.

    Nov20

    Citi

    Predicted $15 billion write offs next 6 months, downgraded

    Nov20

    Countrywide

    Liquidity concerns, signs of bankruptcy

    Nov20

    Freddie Mac

    $ 2 billion write off, liquidity problems

    Nov20

    Swiss re

    $ 1 billion write off

    Nov16

    Citi

    $ 11 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter

    Nov16

    News

    Banks reassuring investors, IMF and OECD issue warnings.

    Nov16

    Novastar financial

    $ 0.4 billion write off, probably expelled from NYSE

    Nov16

    UBS

    $ 7 billion write off. expected in 4th quarter

    Nov15

    Barclays

    $ 2.7 billion write off.

    Nov14

    Bear Stearns

    $ 1.2 billion write off.

    Nov13

    BoA

    $ 3.3 billion write off.

    Nov13

    HSBC

    $ 3.4 billion write off.

    Nov13

    News

    $ 3 billion exposure for director-and-officer insurances, claims resulting from lawsuits.

    Nov13

    RBC

    $ 0.4 billion write off.

    Nov12

    Blackstone

    $ 0.8 billion write off

    Nov12

    Citi

    $ 25 billion exposure resulting from liquidity puts, survival concerns.

    Nov12

    Etrade

    $ 3 billion exposure and an analyst report resulted in a 60% price drop of shares and concerns about going bankrupt.

    Nov12

    Metlife

    Insurance company with $ 91.3 billion mbs exposure

    Nov12

    Principal Financial group

    Insurance company with $ 12.3 billion mbs exposure

    Nov 9

    CIBC

    Canadians reporting $ 0.5 billion write offs, more Canadians to follow.

    Nov 9

    Fanny Mae

    Nov 9

    HSBC

    Antoher 120 jobs in addition to the 750 reported in August are lost

    Nov 9

    JP Morgan

    4th quarter warnings, exposure $ 8 billion.

    Nov 9

    Wachovia

    $ 1.6 billion subprime loss

    Nov 8

    Merrill

    SEC starts investigation investments

    Nov 8

    Morgan Stanley

    $ 3.7 billion subprime write off

    Nov 8

    News

    RBS expects another $250 to $500 billion write offs in level 3 assets in addition to subprime write offs

    Nov7

    Bear Stearns

    Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    BofA

    Expected write offs another $3 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank

    Nov7

    Citi

    Shareholders lawsuits

    Nov7

    Commerzbank

    $337 million write off

    Nov7

    Goldman

    Expected write offs 4th quarter $5 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Lehman

    Expected write offs 4th quarter $3.9 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Merrill

    Expected write offs 4th quarter another $9.4 according to CreditSights

    Nov7

    Morgan Stanley

    Expected write offs another $4 to 6 billion, according to Deutsche Bank

    Nov7

    News

    Level 3 assets concerns, $400 billion downgrade resulting from adjusted ratings.

    Nov5

    Market news

    Asian markets drop sharply (5%)

    Nov 3

    Bear Stearns

    CEO accused of inappropriate conduct

    Nov 3

    Citigroup

    Write off $ 11 billion in addition of the $ 6.8 billion reported 3 weeks ago.

    Nov 3

    Merrill

    Merril not aware of inappropriate transactions, not denying it.

    Nov 2

    Barclays

    Morgan Stanley

    Market and analysts expect losses

    Nov 2

    Credit Suisse

    2.2 billion Swiss francs write down

    Nov 2

    First American

    Washington Mutual

    Accused for inflating mortgage appraisals

    Nov 2

    UBS

    Another $ 8 billion expected in addition to the $3.8 billion

    Nov 1

    Citi

    Downgrade $30 billion expected loss

    Nov 1

    Deutsche bank

    3,2 billion loss, but in control, appraised

    Nov 1

    Federal reserve

    41 billion injection

    Nov 1

    State Street

    $2,6 billion loss, law suits wrong investment advice

    Oct 31

    General Electric

    1 billion at stake, mortgage staff cuts

    Oct 31

    Merrill

    Lawsuits by shareholders

    Oct 31

    UBS

    3,68 billion loss in francs

    Oct 30

    Countrywide

    Offering cds at highest rates

    Oct 29

    Bank of China

    $7,9 billion mortgage write off

    Oct 29

    HSBC

    Sells mortgage unit, $795 million

    Oct 29

    Market news

    Double digit price drop California housing

    Oct 29

    Market news

    80% price drop mortgage backed securities

    Oct 29

    Perpetual

    Cut first-half profit forecast by 5%, spooked investors

    Oct 28

    Countrywide

    Analysts stating CEO is telling lies

    Oct 28

    Fremont Inv & Loan

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 28

    Market news

    Foreclosures wi11 to 14 months

    Oct 28

    New Century Fin Corp

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 28

    WMC Mortgage

    Approved fast foreclosures

    Oct 27

    Countrywide

    CEO accused for dumping stocks

    Oct 26

    Countrywide

    Largest home lender, $1.2 billion loss

    Oct 26

    Moody’s

    Cut the ratings of collateralized debt obligations tied to $33 billion of subprime mortgage securities

    Oct 26

    S&P

    Lawsuits, wrong rating mortgage backed securities, conflict of interests, rating related to fees

    Oct 25

    AIG

    Analysts predicts $9,8 billion loss

    Oct 24

    News

    $400 billion write off prognoses

    Oct 22

    Bank of America

    $750 million loss, provisions up $1,5 billion, profit drop with 94%, 3000 jobs lost, blaming risk mgmt.

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